Indian equity markets are set for a cautious start today, December 15, 2025, as GIFT Nifty futures traded lower by 90 points, or 0.35 percent, at 26,049 on the NSE IX. This decline signals a likely negative opening for Dalal Street, influenced by subdued global cues and persistent foreign selling.^[1] Investors will monitor key domestic data and global developments throughout the session. ### Global Headwinds and Investor Caution The downturn in GIFT Nifty comes as global markets show weakness. US stocks closed lower on Friday, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding 1.69 percent to 23,195.17 and the S&P 500 declining 1.07 percent to 6,827.41.^[2][3] The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 0.51 percent, closing at 48,458.05.^[3] This decline in American equities was largely due to investors rotating out of technology stocks and concerns over an overheated AI trade.^[2][4] Asian markets also traded broadly lower in early Monday sessions. Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI each tanked between 1 percent and 1.25 percent.^[2] Hong Kong's Hang Seng also saw losses, with futures slipping 1 percent, as concerns over technology company earnings and heavy AI-related spending weighed on sentiment.^[3] These weak international signals are contributing to the cautious mood in India. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers in the Indian market, offloading shares worth Rs 1,114 crore on Friday.^[1] Conversely, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided support, buying shares worth Rs 3,869 crore.^[1] This dynamic between foreign outflows and domestic inflows will be a key factor in market direction today. The Indian rupee also depreciated, closing at an all-time low of 90.49 against the US dollar on Friday, further impacting investor sentiment.^[1] ### Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Outlook Technically, the Nifty 50 is showing signs of consolidation. The index rebounded from its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last week and closed above its 20-day EMA on Friday.^[5][4] Analysts believe a weekly close above 26,200 could spur further momentum towards new record highs.^[4] For today's session, initial support for Nifty is placed around the 25,850 to 25,900 range.^[6][7][8] As long as the index holds above this primary demand zone, attempts to reach 26,300 to 26,400 remain probable.^[7] A decisive close below 25,700, however, could make the uptrend vulnerable and invite further selling pressure.^[9][2] On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 26,150 to 26,200, with further upside potential towards 26,300 to 26,350.^[2] The Bank Nifty index underperformed the broader market last week, settling at 59,390 with a weekly decline of 0.66 percent.^[10] It spent most of its time hovering around the 20-day EMA, indicating indecision and subdued momentum.^[10] Immediate support for Bank Nifty is seen near 59,000, with a stronger demand zone at 58,800 to 58,700.^[8] A sustained move above 59,500 could open the path towards the all-time high of 60,100 in the coming weeks.^[11] However, a decisive break below the 58,700 level could weaken the structure and increase downside risk.^[8] ### Analyst Insights and Trading Strategy Market analysts suggest a cautious approach for today's trading session. Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities, views 25,850 and 25,700 as key support levels for Nifty. He states that as long as the market trades above these levels, the positive sentiment is likely to continue.^[2] On the higher side, he expects the index to move up to 26,150 to 26,200.^[2] Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, noted that the 59,700-59,800 zone will remain a key hurdle for Nifty Bank. He believes a sustained breakout above 59,800 could lead to a sharp rally towards 60,500.^[2] Options data for the December 16 expiry indicates strong support for Nifty at the 26,000 level, where put writers are active.^[7][4] On the other hand, the 26,500 calls hold the highest open interest, suggesting strong resistance at that level.^[5][4] This implies a consolidation with an upward bias as long as the 25,850 to 25,900 demand area holds.^[7] Domestic data releases this week, including India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation and trade balance figures, will also influence market sentiment.^[1] Flash readings of the HSBC Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI will provide early signals on economic momentum as the year-end approaches.^[1] Overall, the market is expected to consolidate within a defined range today, with intermittent volatility. Traders are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels closely and manage risk with strict stop-loss orders. The broader bias remains constructive as long as key technical levels hold.

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