Global oil prices surged on Friday, January 9, with Brent crude reaching $63.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) nearing $60. The increase comes as intense, nationwide protests in Iran escalate, fueling market worries about potential disruptions to oil supply from the key Middle Eastern producer. Both benchmarks posted significant gains, climbing over 3% on Thursday before Friday's continued rise.^{[1][2][3][4][5]} ### Iran Unrest Fuels Market Anxiety The protests in Iran have gripped the nation for nearly two weeks, starting in late December 2025. This wave of unrest represents the largest challenge to the country's ruling regime in years, following a major uprising in 2022.^[6][7][8][9] Demonstrations initially erupted in the capital, Tehran, driven by severe economic hardships, including spiraling inflation and a currency devaluation that saw its value drop over 40% last year.^{[7][10][8][9][11]} The protests quickly spread to approximately 180 cities across all 31 of Iran's provinces.^[7][12][9] Iranian authorities have responded with a violent crackdown, employing unlawful force and firearms against demonstrators.^[10][8] Reports from monitoring groups and a doctor in Tehran indicate dozens of deaths, with one group citing 65 fatalities and a medical source reporting at least 217 protester deaths.^[7][12] Thousands of arrests have also occurred, with over 2,300 people reportedly detained.^[7][12] Tehran has issued stern warnings, stating that "rioters" who damage public property or clash with security forces could face the death penalty.^[6][4][10] ### Oil Prices Climb Amid Supply Concerns The escalating civil unrest in Iran, a major global oil producer, has directly impacted market sentiment. Brent crude futures rose $1.51, or 2.44%, to settle at $63.50 per barrel on Friday.^[1] Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.55, or 2.68%, reaching $59.31 per barrel.^[1] WTI crude closed up 2.35% for the day, marking its biggest gain since October and posting one-month highs.^[3][4] For the week, Brent is on track for a 4.5% gain, and WTI has risen 3.5%, marking oil's longest streak of weekly gains since June.^[1][6] Analysts are closely watching the situation. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst with the Price Futures Group, noted, "The uprising in Iran is keeping the market on edge."^[1] Ole Hansen, head of commodity analysis at Saxo Bank, added that "Iran protests seem to be gathering momentum, leading the market to worry about disruptions."^[1] These statements highlight the market's sensitivity to geopolitical instability in oil-rich regions. Iran is the fourth-largest producer within OPEC and produces more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day.^[6][4][13] The country also exports around 2 million barrels per day.^[13] ### Internet Blackout and International Reactions A nationwide internet blackout was reported across Iran on Thursday, January 8, as the protests intensified.^[1][5][7][8] Internet monitoring group NetBlocks confirmed the widespread disruption.^[1][7] Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, warned that this blackout could be an attempt by authorities to conceal grave human rights violations being carried out during the crackdown.^[8] Rebecca White, a researcher at Amnesty International's Security Lab, stated that the Iranian authorities have "deliberately blocked internet access inside Iran to hide the true extent of the grave human rights violations."^[8] U.S. President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to the Iranian regime, stating that it would "pay hell" if protesters were killed during the crackdown.^[6][4] This international attention underscores the gravity of the situation and its potential for broader geopolitical implications. While current global oil inventories are rising and an overall oversupply could cap gains, the immediate risks posed by the Iranian unrest are driving prices upward.^[1][2][5] Any significant disruption to Iran's oil output, or impact on shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil trade, could lead to more substantial price increases.^[14][15] ### Market Outlook Remains Cautious Despite the recent price increases, some analysts maintain a cautious outlook for the longer term. Haitong Futures indicated that global oil inventories are still rising, suggesting that oversupply remains a primary factor that could limit sustained gains.^[1][2][5] The firm added that unless the risks surrounding Iran escalate further, the current rebound in oil prices might be limited and difficult to maintain.^[1][2][5] However, the immediate focus of the market remains on the unfolding events in Iran and the potential for supply interruptions. The interplay of geopolitical tensions, particularly in major oil-producing regions, continues to create volatility in the global energy market. The ongoing protests in Iran serve as a stark reminder of how political instability can quickly translate into economic uncertainty and rising commodity prices worldwide.

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