Former US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States is nearing a "fair trade deal" with India, hinting at future reductions in US tariffs on Indian goods. Trump made the remarks from the Oval Office during the swearing-in ceremony for Sergio Gor as the new US Ambassador to India. He stated that the two nations are "pretty close" to an agreement that would benefit both sides, adding, "They'll love us again."^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]} This potential deal aims to significantly boost bilateral trade, targeting an increase from the current $191 billion to $500 billion by 2030.^[1][2][7] ### High Tariffs and Russian Oil US-India trade relations have faced considerable strain in recent months due to high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In August 2025, the US levied a staggering 50 percent tariff on Indian goods.^{[12][13][14][4][6][7][8][15][9][16][17][18][10][11][19]} This included an initial 25 percent "reciprocal" tariff, followed by an additional 25 percent penalty.^[15][18] The increased duties were largely linked to India's continued imports of Russian oil, which Washington viewed critically amid geopolitical tensions.^{[12][13][14][4][6][7][8][9][16][20][17][10]} India's tariffs currently stand among the highest globally from the US, impacting sectors like textiles, gems, jewelry, and leather.^{[12][13][15][18]} India had previously described these measures as "unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable," asserting its right to an independent energy policy.^{[6][7][15][9]} However, Trump indicated a shift in this dynamic, claiming that India has either "stopped doing the Russian oil" or "reduced it very substantially."^{[12][1][2][13][14][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][16][10]} He reaffirmed his intention to lower tariffs "at some point" in the future.^{[12][1][2][21][13][14][3][4][6][7][8][9][16][10]} ### Progress Towards a New Agreement The prospect of tariff cuts comes as negotiators from both countries work to finalize a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement (BTA).^[1][2][7][8] The proposed deal aims to more than double the trade volume between the US and India, pushing it towards $500 billion by 2030.^[1][2][7] This ambitious target reflects the strategic importance of strengthening economic ties. So far, five rounds of trade talks have taken place since March 2025, with a first-phase agreement anticipated by the end of this year.^{[1][2][6][7][8][9]} India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed on November 5 that discussions on the BTA are "going on very well."^{[1][2][21][8][11]} However, he also noted that several "sensitive and serious issues" still require deliberation.^{[1][2][21][8][11]} Despite these challenges, Trump expressed optimism, stating, "We're making a deal with India. Much different than we had."^{[1][2][21][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][20][11]} ### Strategic Partnership and Economic Impact Trump highlighted the strong relationship between the US and India, particularly his "fantastic relationship" with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.^{[12][1][3][4][5]} He described India as "the largest country in the world" with "over 1.5 billion people" and the "fastest-growing middle class."^{[12][1][3][4]} These remarks underscore India's crucial role as an economic and strategic security partner in the Indo-Pacific region.^{[12][1][3][4][5]} The US has consistently been India's largest trading partner.^[7] However, the recent tariffs have impacted trade volumes. India's exports to the US saw an 11.9 percent decrease year-on-year in September, while imports from the US rose by 11.8 percent.^[7] The proposed trade deal seeks to reverse these trends and foster greater economic cooperation. The swearing-in of Sergio Gor as Ambassador to India is seen as a move to further strengthen this critical relationship.^{[12][1][21][13][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][20][10]} A successful trade agreement with reduced tariffs could significantly boost Indian exports and contribute to the ambitious $500 billion trade target. Both nations continue to work towards a mutually beneficial resolution that can solidify their economic and strategic partnership.

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