Indian benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, faced significant volatility during the monthly Futures and Options (F&O) expiry on Monday, February 24, 2026, as the Nifty 50 dipped towards its intraday low of 25,350. The market witnessed heavy selling pressure, particularly in IT stocks, leading to a notable decline. Analysts indicate a period of consolidation for both indices, with investors closely watching key support levels in the wake of the expiry.
Expiry Day Pressure and Nifty's Battle
The Nifty 50 experienced a challenging F&O expiry session on February 24, closing sharply lower by 288.35 points, or 1.12%, to settle at 25,424.65. The index opened weak, starting below 25,650, and intensified its decline throughout the day, hitting an intraday low near 25,350. This downturn erased gains from the previous two sessions, forming a bearish candle pattern with a lower high and lower low. Concerns over AI-driven disruption in the IT sector fueled much of the selling pressure, causing the Nifty 50 to slip below the crucial 25,450 mark.[goodreturns+3]
Market experts noted the Nifty 50 has been consolidating within a range of 25,350 to 25,900 over the past eight trading sessions. A decisive move beyond this range will likely determine the index's next directional trend. Immediate support for the Nifty 50 is seen around 25,400 to 25,350. Stronger support is identified between 25,300 and 25,200. A breach below 25,327, which marked Tuesday's low in some reports, could trigger further declines towards the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 25,100 to 25,200 zone. On the upside, immediate resistance is located around 25,580 to 25,650, with a key hurdle at 25,642, which was Tuesday's high. Failure to overcome this resistance could keep the short-term bias corrective.[goodreturns+10]
Bank Nifty's Resilience Amidst Volatility
In contrast to the Nifty 50's sharper decline, the Bank Nifty index showed relative resilience on the F&O expiry day. It formed a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, signaling ongoing consolidation amidst stock-specific movements. Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banking stocks continued to outperform the broader market. The Bank Nifty closed 0.15% higher at 61,264.25 on Monday, February 24, forming a bullish candle with a long upper shadow, which suggested underlying buying support despite some selling at elevated levels.[goodreturns+4]
Analysts maintain a positive bias for Bank Nifty, suggesting that any dips should be viewed as buying opportunities. Key short-term support for the index is established in the 60,500 to 60,200 zone. This area represents a confluence of the 20-day EMA and a significant retracement level. The index is expected to trade within a near-term range of 60,000 to 61,750. A decisive breakout beyond this established range could ignite fresh directional momentum. Immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is seen between 61,500 and 61,700. A sustained move above 61,600 is considered a major hurdle that could lead to a rally towards 62,200 and potentially 62,600.[goodreturns+9]
Analyst Outlook and Key Levels
Market analysts are closely monitoring technical levels and global cues following the F&O expiry. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 is currently at a key support level around 25,400. He believes a sustainable upward movement above the 25,650 to 25,700 hurdle could trigger another relief rally. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlighted the Sensex taking support near its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 83,000. He stated that as long as the Sensex trades above this level, bullish momentum is likely to continue.[livemint+3]
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, pointed out that for Bank Nifty, the region of 61,500 to 61,600 will act as a major hurdle. He added that a sustained breakout above 61,600 could unleash strong upside momentum towards 62,200 and further to 62,600. For Nifty, Nilesh Jain, VP-Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd., emphasized that a decisive move above 25,800 is crucial to trigger short covering, potentially propelling the index towards 26,000. He placed immediate support for Nifty at the 21-DMA near 25,570.[livemint+3]
Riyank Arora, Associate Vice President – HNI & Derivatives, Hedged.in, stated that the market looks relatively stable and positive, expecting it to head higher as momentum spikes approaching the monthly expiry. He identified 83,000 as a major support zone for Sensex, below which selling pressure could intensify.[livemint]
The Road Ahead: Consolidation and Global Cues
The Indian stock market is expected to remain volatile in the immediate aftermath of the monthly F&O expiry. While domestic resilience provides a constructive sentiment, the market is likely to remain range-bound with elevated volatility unless fresh triggers emerge. The volatility gauge India VIX has eased to 14.10, but a sustained move below 13 is necessary for bulls to regain firm control. Global cues, particularly from US markets and Asian trading sessions, will play a crucial role in determining the daily trend.[goodreturns+2]
Traders are advised to prepare for typical expiry-day volatility, which often results in choppy price action until positions roll over and clearer intraday direction emerges. A strategy of selective accumulation on dips near strong support levels may be prudent until a clearer global direction unfolds. Institutional flows and domestic data releases will also be closely watched. Investors are urged to remain informed, manage risk effectively, and identify potential opportunities that arise during these volatile sessions.[enrichmoney+1]
The immediate future for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty points towards continued consolidation, with the ability of key support levels to hold determining the market's trajectory in the coming sessions.
