US soybean futures declined on Monday, February 9, pulling back from recent gains as Brazil’s expanding harvest sent more supply into the global market. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soybean futures settled down 4-1/2 cents at $11.10-3/4 per bushel, retreating from a two-month high of $11.37-3/4 reached last Friday. T^[1][2]his drop reflects market reaction to the swift progress of Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean crop, which is strongly positioned for a record-breaking year. ^[1][2]### Brazil's Historic Harvest Gathers Pace Growers in Brazil, the world's leading soy supplier, are making rapid progress with their harvest. As of last Thursday, farmers had harvested 16% of their soybean crop, slightly exceeding the 15% reported at the same time a year earlier, according to agribusiness consultancy AgRural. T^[1][2]his accelerated pace of harvest, particularly in key regions, is quickly adding to global soybean supplies. Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest farming state and a crucial part of the soybean belt, is notably advanced, with 40% of its crop already harvested. ^[3]Multiple agricultural consultancies and government agencies are forecasting a historic yield for Brazil's 2025/2026 season. Agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult projects a record 182.2 million metric tons, which would be 10.1 million tons higher than last year's output. H^[4]edgepoint Global Markets also raised its projection to 179.5 million tons, citing a combination of favorable weather conditions and strong recovery in key producing states. T^[5]he US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is widely expected to increase its estimate for Brazil's soybean harvest to 179.4 million metric tons, up from its previous forecast of 178 million, a figure already considered an all-time high. B^[1][2][6]razil's National Supply Company (Conab) anticipates production around 176.1 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season. ^[7][8]The optimistic outlook is bolstered by consistent weather patterns throughout much of the growing cycle. December, in particular, presented positive conditions that supported strong vegetative development and yield prospects across most producing regions. R^[5][8]io Grande do Sul, the country's third-largest producer, is experiencing a significant recovery after three years of challenging weather, further contributing to the record national forecast. ^[5]Tom Fritz, a partner with Chicago-based EFG Group, highlighted the immediate impact on markets. "A lot of this has to do with the Brazilian harvest getting into full tilt," Fritz said, explaining the bearish sentiment. T^[1][2]his influx of supply from the world's top producer significantly influences global soybean prices. ^[9][10][11]### Futures Retreat Amid China Skepticism The recent decline in US soy futures follows a sharp rally last week. Prices had surged to a two-month high, climbing well above $11 a bushel. T^{[1][2][10][12]}his upward movement was largely driven by remarks from US President Donald Trump, who suggested China was considering raising its purchases of US soybeans to 20 million metric tons for the current season. S^{[1][2][10][12]}uch political statements can cause significant volatility in commodity markets. ^{[13][14][15][16][12]}However, market analysts and dealers remain largely skeptical about sustained large-scale demand from China for US beans, especially at higher price points. They argue that elevated US prices make American soybeans uneconomical when cheaper alternatives are readily available. B^[1][2][10]razilian Free On Board (FOB) offers are currently more than $1 per bushel below US offers, making Brazilian soybeans a more attractive option for international buyers, particularly China. T^[3][10]his price disparity directly impacts the competitiveness of US exports. Despite this broader skepticism, the USDA did confirm private sales of 264,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China on Monday. H^{[1][3][17][2][18]}owever, this single sale may not be enough to counter the overall bearish pressure from South American supply. Sean Hickey, an analyst at Bendigo Bank Agribusiness, noted the shifting dynamics. "U.S.-China soybean trade appears to be running out of steam with that growing supply pressure out of South America ever-present," Hickey said. ^[2]Brazilian farmers, despite the robust harvest, have been selling their new crop at a slower pace than in previous years. Only 33.9% of the 2025/2026 soybean crop has been marketed so far, which is 10 percentage points below the five-year average. T^[3][19]his reluctance to sell is partly due to a strengthening local currency and high transportation costs, even as abundant supply puts downward pressure on CBOT futures contracts. ^[19]### Broader Market and Biofuel Demand The broader agricultural commodity market saw mixed results as soybean futures retreated. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil futures, however, bucked the downward trend, rising more than 2%. T^[1][3][2]his increase was linked to the release of an interim framework for a trade deal between the United States and India. The deal could potentially lower barriers to Indian imports of US soyoil, boosting demand. M^[1][3][2]eanwhile, corn and wheat futures experienced slight declines, drifting lower amid a lack of significant supportive news in those markets. ^[1][2]Domestic demand for soybeans within Brazil is also playing a significant role. The country is expected to crush approximately 59 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026. T^[9]his robust domestic processing is primarily driven by an increasing consumption of soybean oil, which is heavily influenced by the expansion of Brazil's biofuel industry. B^{[20][9][8][16]}razil has notably increased its mandatory biodiesel blend from B14 to B15, a policy implemented in August 2025, further stimulating internal demand for soybean oil and meal. T^[20]his growing internal absorption helps manage the massive supply from the record harvest. Economists like Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, point to international trade and weather as two primary factors shaping soybean prospects for 2026. T^[13][14][16]he increasing supply of biofuels also offers a positive factor for soybeans, signaling increased demand for vegetable oils based on policy. ^[13][14][16]The ongoing record harvest in Brazil is set to keep global soybean supplies abundant, influencing international prices and trade dynamics for the foreseeable future.

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