**New York, NY, October 20, 2025** — Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has delivered a stark assessment of the impact of US chip export restrictions on his company's business in China, revealing that Nvidia's market share in China's advanced AI chip segment has collapsed from a dominant 95% to essentially zero. Speaking at a Citadel Securities event on October 6, Huang openly criticized the US policy, calling it a "mistake" that harms both American and Chinese interests. T^{[1][2][3][4][5]}his dramatic shift underscores the escalating tech rivalry between the two global powers and its profound consequences for leading technology firms. Huang stated unequivocally, "At the moment, we are 100% out of China," a market that previously accounted for 20% to 25% of Nvidia's data center revenue. H^[1][6][7][3]e emphasized that Nvidia's financial forecasts now assume "zero" revenue from China, with any future business considered merely a "bonus." T^[2][7]his admission highlights the severe financial blow to the chipmaker, which had previously announced a $5.5 billion charge related to the H20 chip restrictions and estimated losing $15 billion in potential sales in China. ^{[8][9][10][11]}### The Full Story The roots of this market collapse trace back to October 2022, when the US Commerce Department first rolled out export controls aimed at preventing China's military and surveillance agencies from accessing cutting-edge AI chips like Nvidia's A100 and H100. T^{[1][6][12][13]}hese initial restrictions forced Nvidia to develop toned-down versions, the A800 and H800, specifically for the Chinese market, which were designed to comply with performance limits. ^[14][15][7]However, the situation intensified in October 2023, when the US government expanded these rules, rendering even the China-specific A800 and H800 models non-compliant. I^[1][15][12]n response, Nvidia again attempted to adapt, developing a new series of chips for China, including the H20, L20, and L2, based on its H100 architecture but with significantly reduced computing power to adhere to the latest restrictions. T^{[14][16][15][17][18]}hese chips were slated for mass production in the second quarter of 2024. ^[16]But here's the thing: even these modified chips faced hurdles. In April 2025, the US government deemed the H20 still too powerful for export, requiring Nvidia to obtain a federal export license for its sale to China. W^{[19][9][20][21]}hat's more, Beijing also raised security concerns over the H20, with the Chinese cyberspace regulator launching an investigation and reportedly discouraging local companies from purchasing it. I^{[6][2][15][4][12][22]}n September 2025, China's Cyberspace Administration reportedly barred all domestic tech firms from buying Nvidia AI chips, directing them to use local suppliers instead. T^[12]his dual pressure from both US restrictions and Chinese directives effectively squeezed Nvidia out of the market. ### What This Means This dramatic shift has profound implications for both Nvidia and the global technology landscape. For Nvidia, the immediate consequence is a significant loss of revenue and market share in one of the world's largest and fastest-growing AI markets. Analysts have estimated potential revenue losses of up to $4.5 billion per quarter for the remainder of the year. T^[8][10][11]he company is now exploring strategies like developing even more tailored versions of its next-generation Blackwell chips for China to navigate these complex regulations. ^[21]But the impact extends beyond Nvidia. Jensen Huang warned that cutting off access to China would hurt both countries, stating, "What harms China could oftentimes also harm America, and even worse." H^[6][3][4]e argued that these restrictions are inadvertently accelerating China's drive for self-sufficiency in semiconductor technology, empowering domestic competitors like Huawei Technologies. H^{[6][2][9][10][11]}uawei has already introduced its Ascend 910B chip, which performs competitively with Nvidia's earlier A100 and H100 models, and is being purchased by multiple Chinese hyperscalers. ^[18][23]**Key Points:** * Nvidia's market share in China's advanced AI chip segment has dropped from 95% to 0% due to US export controls. *^{[1][6][7][3][4]} Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has called the US chip curbs a "mistake" that harms American companies and accelerates Chinese self-sufficiency. *^{[6][2][9][10][11]} The US has progressively tightened restrictions since October 2022, blocking Nvidia's most advanced chips (A100, H100, H200) and even subsequent China-specific versions (A800, H800, H20). *^{[1][6][15][12][21]} China has also reportedly discouraged domestic companies from buying Nvidia chips and is focusing on fostering its own AI chip innovation. ^{[6][7][4][12][22]}### The Bigger Picture This situation is a vivid illustration of the intensifying technology cold war between the US and China. Washington's stated goal is to prevent Beijing from gaining a technological edge that could be used for military or surveillance purposes. H^[19][12][21]owever, industry experts and analysts suggest that these controls might be counterproductive, pushing China to invest heavily in domestic semiconductor capabilities and fostering the rise of powerful local competitors. ^{[8][9][3][23]}Huang highlighted that China possesses nearly 50% of the world's AI researchers, with "incredible schools, incredible focus, and lots of passion for AI." H^[6][4]e believes it's a "mistake to not have those researchers build AI on American technology," suggesting that isolating China could slow down global AI progress and diminish America's global competitiveness. S^{[6][2][4][13]}ome analysts even believe the US has "basically just handed the China AI market to Huawei." ^[23]The US is also attempting to close loopholes, with plans to introduce license requirements for AI chip exports to countries like Malaysia and Thailand, where Chinese firms are suspected of rerouting Nvidia chip access. T^[24]his indicates a broader, sustained effort by the US to control the flow of advanced technology. ### What Happens Next? The path forward for Nvidia in China remains highly uncertain. While Nvidia continues to try and develop new, compliant chips for the Chinese market, including a tailored version of its next-generation Blackwell AI chip, the landscape is shifting rapidly. R^[21]eports have even emerged that Nvidia ordered suppliers to stop production on its H20 AI chips in August 2025, further complicating its strategy. ^[12]Investors will be closely watching Nvidia's upcoming earnings reports for clarity on the financial impact of these restrictions and any new strategies the company employs to offset losses. Analysts like Gil Luria from D.A. Davidson consider China the "biggest swing factor" for Nvidia's quarterly performance. M^[11]eanwhile, the geopolitical chess match continues, with no clear end in sight. The question remains whether US policies will effectively curb China's AI ambitions or merely accelerate its journey toward technological independence, potentially at the expense of American market leaders.